Do you often wonder what weather forecasting is all about and what tools are used? How is it possible to make short, medium, and long-term predictions of weather conditions? Let’s find out!
By the end of this topic, you are expected to;
The illustration above is of a weather balloon, also called a sounding balloon. This is a high-altitude balloon carrying instruments that send back information about temperature, atmospheric pressure, humidity, and wind speed.
Here is everything you need to know about weather forecasting.
Weather forecasting refers to the application of technology and science in order to predict atmospheric conditions for a certain location at a given time. Quantitative data is collected about the atmosphere’s current state at a certain place so as to make weather forecasts.
Weather forecasting was once calculated by hand-based methods mainly on the basis of barometric pressure. Currently, sky and weather conditions, as well as cloud cover, are forecasted on computer-based models. These current models have an advantage over the past models as many atmospheric factors are put into consideration. The input of humans is also required in picking the best possible model of forecasting, this involves skills in pattern recognition, knowledge of the performance of the model, knowledge of model biases, and teleconnections. Weather forecasting inaccuracy is a result of the atmosphere’s chaotic nature, incomplete understanding of the processes of the atmosphere, errors in the measuring of initial conditions, and the massive computational power that is required to solve the equations describing the atmosphere. Therefore, forecasts become less accurate with an increase in the difference between the time of the forecast and current time.
Weather warnings are very important forecasts as they may protect life and property. Forecasts that are based on precipitation and temperature are of great importance to agriculture. Forecasts in temperature are applied by utility companies to estimate demand over the coming days. Weather forecasts are used by people on a daily basis to determine what to wear.
The main reasons for issuing weather forecasts include;
Different kinds of tools are used to achieve the goal of weather forecasting. These tools include thermometers for measuring temperature, radar for measuring the location and speed of clouds, barometers for measuring air pressure, and computer models to process the data that is accumulated from the above instruments.
The main ways in which weather can be forecasted include observing the current conditions of the weather, tracking the movement of air and clouds, checking for previous weather patterns resembling the current ones, examining changes in the pressure of air, and running computer models.
Type of forecasts
Forecasting Techniques
Forecasting process
